RBA Rates Announcement Nov 2026

Melbourne Cup Day brought more pain for many home loan mortgage holders with the RBA lifting the official cash rate to 4.85% – its highest level since 2008.

Half an hour before starters’ orders at Flemington, Australia’s Central Bank hiked the benchmark rate by 0.25%, explaining that inflation was ‘broad based and elevated’.

‘There continue to be heightened uncertainties about the outlook for domestic economic activity and inflation,’ noted the Reserve Bank.

‘The Middle East conflict remains unresolved, and there are scenarios where inflation is higher and activity lower than forecast.

“Global oil supply disruptions are maintaining upward pressure on global and domestic energy prices and inflation.

‘A period of prolonged uncertainty may also cause growth to be lower overseas and in Australia,’ said the statement today following a 6–3 vote in favour.

The economic data tells the story of today’s rise.

Inflation rose to 4.3% in the year to September, mostly due to elevated transport costs.

Annual trimmed mean – a measure of underlying inflation that the RBA views closely – came in at 3.6%.

In short, both figures are beyond the 2–3% preferred band set by the RBA.

To this point, deputy RBA governor Andrew Hauser said late last month that the inflation outlook looked “materially worse” than the RBA had forecast.

The RBA had previously expected inflation to return to around the midpoint of its target range in late 2027.

In fact, some analysts are tipping more rises next year, taking the benchmark rate into the 5% band.

This has prompted some ‘it’ll get worse before it gets better’ commentary. As for inflation forecasts, the RBA noted that inflation is now forecast to remain elevated through much of 2027.

And it is not expected to reach the top of the 2–3 per cent target range ‘until late 2027, around three quarters later than previously forecast.’

If there is good news for the nation’s home loan mortgage borrowers, it’s that the RBA would be less inclined to play Christmas Grinch and hike again next month.

Australia’s Central Bank will more likely wait to assess the lag effect of multiple rate hikes on the economy before pondering another hike (similar to New Zealand’s Reserve Bank last week, which surprised analysts by sitting tight on its official cash rate).

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